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- CASE TOTAL LOCKDOWN AUSTRALIAS LESSONS WORLD HOW TO
- CASE TOTAL LOCKDOWN AUSTRALIAS LESSONS WORLD FREE
The Australian response to COVID-19 has kept the country largely free from large-scale transmission, such as occurred in Europe, the USA and Latin America, by halting flights from China in February, and stopping inbound travel by non-Australian residents from 20th March 2020. The insights gained are of benefit to other countries and jurisdictions in their determination of response policy.
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The aim of this study was to understand why the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission grew so rapidly why the initial increase in social distancing response was ineffective what responses would have been more effective and thus the lessons learned.
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This occurred as a result of ineffective management of the mandated hotel quarantine policy for returning overseas travellers, where transmission is believed to have occurred between infectious arrivals and security staff, then among the staff, and thus to their families and friends 1, 2. We report on a detailed, model-based case study into the significant COVID-19 second wave in greater Melbourne, Australia, from June 2020 onwards.
CASE TOTAL LOCKDOWN AUSTRALIAS LESSONS WORLD HOW TO
Early control of second wave resurgence potentially permits strict lockdown measures to be eased earlier.Īn ongoing challenge faced by public health authorities during the COVID-19 pandemic is knowing when to activate social distancing strategies, the magnitude of the measures, how to safely ease the measures once case numbers reach low levels, and how best to react when a rapidly developing outbreak occurs. Such measures are shown to be necessary to reduce daily and total case numbers, and the consequential health burden, so preventing health care facilities being overwhelmed. Data showing exponential rise in cases, doubling every 7–10 days, can be used to trigger early lockdown measures. The timing of social distancing activation is shown to be critical to their effectiveness. The model was shown to realistically predict the epidemic growth rate under the social distancing measures applied, validating the methods applied. Our results suggest that activating lockdown measures when second-wave case numbers first indicated exponential growth, would have been highly effective in reducing COVID-19 cases. Epidemic peaks and duration of the second wave were also shown to reduce. Modelling earlier activation of lockdown measures are predicted to reduce total case numbers by more than 50%. Specific social distancing interventions were modelled by adjusting person-to-person contacts in mixing locations. The model was calibrated using daily diagnosed case data prior to lockdown. An individual-based transmission model was used to (1) describe a second-wave COVID-19 epidemic in Australia (2) evaluate the impact of lockdown strategies used and (3) evaluate effectiveness of alternative mitigation strategies. We conducted a detailed analysis of this outbreak, together with an evaluation of the effectiveness of alternative response strategies, to provide guidance to countries experiencing second waves of SARS-Cov-2 transmission. Australia experienced a second wave from June 2020 onwards, confined to greater Melbourne, with initial social distancing measures failing to reduce rapidly increasing case numbers. In addition, rising case numbers reflect an increase in coronavirus transmission some time previously, so timing of response measures is highly important. It has reported just under 29,300 cases and 909 deaths since the pandemic began.There is a significant challenge in responding to second waves of COVID-19 cases, with governments being hesitant in introducing hard lockdown measures given the resulting economic impact. Snap lockdowns, social distancing rules and speedy contact tracing systems have helped Australia to contain fresh clusters in recent months. So, we need to brace ourselves,” NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said. “I hope that we do not have any cases emerge in New South Wales, but I won’t be surprised if we did. Health alerts have been issued for some pubs, cafes and restaurants exposed to the virus as officials urged patrons to test and isolate. Neighbouring New South Wales (NSW) state, Australia’s most populous, is also on alert after two of the Queensland cases, a nurse and her sister, travelled while infectious to Byron Bay, a tourist town just south of the Queensland border and home to Hollywood A-listers such as Chris Hemsworth. The snap lockdown has thrown the travel plans of thousands into disarray as the lockdown is scheduled to end just a day before the Easter long weekend and the school term break in Australia, a popular time for vacations.